PART IV

Comments on

"ECLIPSES AND THE PROMISED MESSIAH"

by Dr David L McNaughton


15th November 1995

("Eclipses and the Promised Messiah", by Dr Muhammad Aslam Nasir, was placed on the
Internet under " Review of Religions" in March 1994.)


Dr D L McNaughton is a South African meteorologist and astronomer working at Dubai Airport in the Meteorological Office. He is responsible for answering all queries of an astronomical nature and is considered to be an authority on this subject in the UAE. He is well known for his valuable contributions of articles in this field to magazines and journals both locally and internationally for the past several years.
In addition to the following article, at our request, Dr David has examined the occurrenc e of double-eclipse Ramadans and the statements made by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad Qadiani. His paper will shortly appear in Hamdard Islamicus and will be placed here as well, Insha Allah.
  1. The foundation-stone of Dr Muhammad Aslam Nasir's thesis is his very drastic reinterpretation of the words of Imam Muhammed al Baqir ibn 'Ali ibn Husain. That Imam's statement about a lunar eclipse on the first night of Ramadan, is regarded by Dr Muhammad Aslam as referring to the 13th of Ramadan - by arguing that the 13th is the earliest Ramadan date when such an eclipse is possible. Similarly, Imam Baqir's stipulation of a solar eclipse "in the middle of Rama dan" has been reinterpreted by Dr Muhammad Aslam as one which would take place on the 28th of Ramadan!

    According to many accounts, when Imam Muhammed al Baqir made his prophecy, one of his companions suggested that he might have inadvertently reversed the order of the two eclipses. However, the Imam replied that he had not made a mistake. If indeed ( as Dr Muhammad Aslam claims) this Imam had really meant to specify the 13th and 28th of Ramadan, then surely he would have explained that when questioned.
  2. The above "alteration" of those Ramadan dates is compounded by additional uncertainty - because of flexibility in specifying exactly where crescent sightings are made, when defining the start of that lunar month.

    Islamic countries occupy a wide range of longitudes between eastern Asia and northwest Africa, so their calendars do not always follow the same Gregorian dates. There is also a marked bias between the northern and southern hemispheres: e.g. it is often easier to spot a new-born crescent from southeast Africa than it is from a Levantine country on the same longitude (or vice versa) - because of the different angles between the ecliptic and the horizon at dusk.

    Furthermore, there are other Islamic calendar systems in use which eliminate any dependence on lunar observation: such a calendar (based on a 10631-day cycle) has been adopted by the Bohra community, and (for certain months) by the Saudi Arabian authorities. It often runs one or two days behind calendars which conform strictly to crescent-sighting.

    Thus, it is probably unproductive to attempt to examine whether or not particular eclipses did in fact occur (or commence ) on the 13th of Ramadan, or on the 14th, or whenever, because of the difficulty in deciding which Islamic calendar should be utilised.

    However, there is absolutely no doubt that there have been many occasions when a lunar and a solar eclipse have both been witnessed during Ramadan(McNaughton, 1995).

    Dr Muhammad Aslam's article contains another time-misconception in his claim that all eclipses are confined to one particular Islamic day. On the contrary, it is by no means impossible for an already eclipsed moon to rise as the sun sets, having been visible earlier on from countries further east. Similarly, the sun may set while eclipsed - but continuing to remain eclipsed and still above the horizon elsewhere. Alternatively, a solar eclipse observed from west Africa or Europe will often begin before and e nd after sunset in Pakistan, for example.

  3. Dr Muhammad Aslam's mention of errors in von Oppolzer's 1887 Canon of Eclipses is misleading and inappropriate in view of the availability of more accurate canons, such as those produced by Meeus and Mucke and by Bao-Lin Liu and Fiala. (In fact, von Oppolzer's analyses were much better than Dr Muhammad Aslam implies). Also, Dr Muhammad's excuse that past eclipses cannot be checked properly because of fluctuations in Earth's rate of rotation and in the moon's orbital motion - is yet another " red herrin g".

    If an eclipse-shadow is scheduled to brush the surface of the Earth, then it will still do so even if our planet is suddenly forced to spin faster or more slowly. Admittedly the eclipse timings will be affected (according to a clock running on UTC) - but past records are almost always good enough to confirm dates of occurrence - and indeed to enable scientists to deduce what UTC time-correction is appropriate for each occasion. (The contribution made to that discrepancy by variations in Earth's rotation-r ate is known as the "Delta-T" value for the date concerned: these can be estimated for the past much more reliably than for the future).

    Despite what Dr Muhammad Aslam implies, year to year variations in the shape of the moon's orbit can be modelled and calculated extremely well. Virtually all astronomers agree that the Chapront ELP-2000/82 lunar theory is by far the best one presently available. It is true that the moon's long-term orbital deceleration is not known with 100 per cent. accuracy - but during the last one or two centuries, eclipse times computed according to the Chapront algorithm are nevertheless reliable to within a few secon ds.

  4. Dr Muhammad Aslam's investigation of future eclipses up until AD 2100 is unconvincing without a full exposition of criteria he adopted to decide on the dates of 1st Ramadan. There is a wide "grey" area where crescent sightability cannot be ascertained in advance because it depends very much on the thickness of the low-level haze. This often raises doubt as to exactly when Ramadan may commmence, and an error of a whole day is enough to destroy Dr Muhammad Aslam's thesis.

    A professional approach would also have stated what values were assumed for the Delta-T correction, to allow for the slowing down of Earth's rotation; it is just possible that other (equally plausible) values could alter at least one of his dates.


REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY SOFTWARE

You are welcome to write to David or drop me a note :

Dr David L. McNaughton
P. O. Box 1897
Dubai,
United Arab Emirates

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